Two-Speed Housing Market: Where Smart Buyers Are Looking in 2026
Australia’s housing market is cooling from last year’s boom, but prices are still rising, not collapsing. CommBank expects national pricesto slow to ~5% growth in 2026 and ~3% in 2027. (Last year prices jumped ~10%, leaving values roughly 55% above pre-pandemic levels.) The key headwind is higher interest rates, which have begun to dampen buyer demand. Experts stress that prices are likely to keep rising, just at a slower pace, rather than fall. In short, growth is moderating, not reversing, but Australia’s housing market is far from turning down.
Two-Speed Market Across Cities
New data reveals a two‑speed housing market, and it’s getting worse – MacroBusiness
Recent data show a stark two-speed market. Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide have seen the strongest gains, while Sydney and Melbourne have barely budged. For example, Perth’s dwelling valuesjumped ~7.3% in the March quarter2026, whereas Sydney and Melbourne were roughly flat or down. CommBank notes Perth/Brisbane/Adelaide have outpaced the national average since COVID, driven by big population inflows and tight supply. By contrast, New South Wales and Victoria have built more homes than people, easing price pressure in Sydney/Melbourne. In practice, this means buyers (and buyer’s agents) need to recognise divergent conditions: target growth hotspots like WA, QLD and SA, not just the big cities.
Supply, House vs Unit, and Affordability
Detached houses have outperformed apartments in recent years. CommBank reports that house prices have risen even more sharply than the overall market. This reflects strong competition from families for standalone homes. Units (apartments) have lagged, except where entry-level demand or high rental yields support them. Fundamental factors matter: we’re simply not building enough homes to meet demand. Supply constraints mean prices stay firm even as borrowing costs climb.
For buyers, this means affordability is shifting demand towards cheaper markets. Many families are looking beyond capital cities, towards suburbs and regional towns where detached houses are more affordable. In these markets, rental and price growth are strengthening as budgets stretch further.
Key Strategies for Buyer’s Agents
Buyer’s agents today focus on location and fundamentals, not trying to time the bottom. Key takeaways for purchasers include:
- Location Over Timing: Prioritise suburbs with strong demand drivers (jobs, schools, infrastructure). A great neighbourhood often pays off more than waiting for lower rates.
- Houses vs. Units: Standalone homes still have a strong pull for buyers. Detached houses have been leading the way in price growth, especially among families putting down roots.
- Target Supply-Constrained Markets: Look for areas with low vacancy and short listing periods. Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide still see fierce competition (stock levels in Perth are well below average). In undersupplied suburbs, price support is strong, and low inventory underpins capital growth.
- Long-Term, Risk-Managed Strategy: This is wealth-building, not speculating. Do thorough due diligence, research local trends in jobs, infrastructure and housing supply. A measured approach (sticking to a clear brief) can capture the forecast growth (5% this year, 3% next) while managing risk.
Ready to make your move? For tailored advice or to discuss your buying strategy, contact Investmate. Feel free to call us at +61 421 942 049 or book a free consultation today. Investmate is here to guide you and help secure the right property in this market. Follow us on Instagram and LinkedIn for more insights.
