Why Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide Are Still Outperforming, and What Sydney and Melbourne Investors Are Missing
Australia’s housing market entered a new phase in June 2026. While Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide remain Australia’s strongest annual performers, the latest Cotality data shows momentum is cooling nationally. National dwelling values fell 0.4% in June, the biggest monthly decline since 2022, signalling that even the strongest markets are no longer operating in the same easy-growth conditions.
That does not erase the annual outperformance of Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide. Perth remains Australia’s strongest annual performer, Brisbane continues to benefit from affordability and migration, and Adelaide has held firm through limited housing supply. For property investors Australia wide, the question is no longer simply which city is growing fastest, but which suburbs continue to offer the strongest long-term fundamentals.
The Numbers, Directly
Growth figures by capital city (latest available annual data)
| City | Monthly change | Quarterly change | Annual growth |
| Perth | +1.5% | +4.8% | +25.8% |
| Darwin | +1.5% | +5.2% | +20.3% |
| Brisbane | +0.9% | +3.4% | +19.1% |
| Adelaide | +0.5% | +2.8% | +12.3% |
| Sydney | -0.9% | -2.1% | +2.3% |
| Melbourne | -0.8% | -2.3% | +0.5% |
Source: Cotality Home Value Index
The latest June data does not erase the annual outperformance of Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide, but it does show that even stronger markets are no longer operating in the same easy-growth conditions. These city-level figures are based on Cotality’s May 2026 Home Value Index. June data shows national values fell 0.4%, confirming broader market cooling.
Three Reasons the Gap Is Structural, Not Accidental
The performance gap between Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide on one side and Sydney and Melbourne on the other is not a short-term anomaly. It has been building on identifiable structural differences, the same ones that were visible in the vacancy data, population flows, and listing levels well before the growth divergence became front-page news.
The first is supply constraint. In the four weeks to February 2026, Perth listings sat 48% below their five-year average. Brisbane was 31% below, and Adelaide was 23% below. Sydney and Melbourne, by contrast, were running at roughly average listing levels, with new supply flowing in at rates 9 to 12% above their five-year averages. When stock is scarce, and demand holds, prices move. When supply builds, and borrowing capacity is compressed, they stall.
The RBA delivered three cash rate hikes during early 2026 and held the cash rate at 4.35% on 16 June 2026 while assessing the impact of those earlier increases. The higher-rate environment continues to place pressure on borrowing capacity across Australian housing markets. In Sydney, where the median house price sits above $1.3 million, the pool of borrowers who can service the debt has shrunk significantly. In Perth, where the mid-market sits below $800,000, the same rate environment is far less restrictive. Tim Lawless of Cotality noted precisely this: competition remains strongest for lower-priced stock, where first-home buyers, investors, and upgraders all compete, and Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide remain genuinely competitive at those price points.
The third is that Perth and Brisbane have historically moved through different property cycles than Sydney and Melbourne, making them more resilient during periods when borrowing capacity is constrained. Commodities, population inflows, and employment infrastructure that doesn’t depend on a single CBD all mean these cities don’t simply follow the East Coast cycle; they often run counter to it. That is not a new observation. It is a feature of how Australian housing works.
What Sydney and Melbourne Investors Are Missing
Perth’s higher-priced segment is still outperforming Sydney’s lower-priced segment
Perth’s top-quartile homes grew 5.7% in a single quarter. Sydney’s bottom-quartile grew 0.8%.
Even Perth’s higher-priced segment is outperforming Sydney’s lower-priced segment by roughly 7 to 1. An investor conditioned to think of Sydney as the “safe” choice is paying a premium for a market where every segment is either flat or falling, while every Perth segment, including the expensive end, is still in positive territory.
Brisbane: units accelerating faster than houses
Brisbane units grew 21.8% annually, while houses grew 18.6%. Overall dwelling growth sat at 19.1%.
Brisbane’s unit market is now outpacing its house market – driven by affordability-conscious buyers and interstate migration from New South Wales. The Olympics 2032 infrastructure commitment is a long-duration demand signal that most short-term market commentary consistently underweights.
Adelaide: still growing on three drivers the media ignores
Limited housing availability, relative affordability, and strong owner-occupier demand. Annual growth 12.3%.
Adelaide does not produce the same volume of media coverage as Sydney or Melbourne. What it has produced, consistently, is positive growth across every price segment through a period where the two most-discussed markets in Australia have been falling.
Domain’s FY27 forecast suggests Sydney house prices may fall 3%–7%, Melbourne 4%–8%, while Brisbane is forecast to rise 3%–7%, Adelaide 4%–8%, and Perth 5%–9%. Although stronger markets are expected to remain more resilient, the latest market data suggests investors should now place greater emphasis on suburb selection rather than assuming every property within a high-performing city will deliver the same result.
How Investmate Approaches the Selection Decision
Investmate does not make recommendations based on which city appears most in the financial press. Every acquisition recommendation is built from vacancy rate data, population inflow trajectory, days on market trends, and supply pipeline analysis, applied at the suburb level, not just the capital city level.
This is where a clear property investment strategy Australia process matters. The strongest-performing markets are still supported by better fundamentals, but the easiest phase of the cycle may be behind them. Suburb-level selection now matters more than simply choosing the strongest capital city.
In a market where even the strongest cities are beginning to moderate, Investmate helps investors compare suburb-level fundamentals, vacancy rates, supply pipelines and price-segment risk before buying. Whether you are assessing property investment Perth, exploring an investment property Adelaide opportunity, or looking for a buyers’ agent Australia investors trust, the focus should always be on evidence rather than headlines. If you are searching for the best suburbs to invest in Australia or need a buyers’ agent for investors who look beyond headlines, the process starts with the data.
Book a strategy session with the team at investmateba.com.au to see exactly how that analysis applies to your situation. Follow Investmate on Instagram, Facebook, YouTube and LinkedIn.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Is Perth property still a good investment after 26% annual growth?
Answer: Perth remains one of Australia’s strongest annual performers, but the latest market data suggests investors should now be more selective at the suburb and price-segment level. While supply constraints continue to support many areas, growth is becoming more uneven than earlier in the cycle.
Q: Should Sydney and Melbourne investors consider buying interstate in 2026?
Answer: The data supports considering it, depending on the investor’s finance, risk profile and long-term strategy. A 25-percentage-point annual growth gap between Perth and Melbourne means that market selection has materially outweighed property selection as a performance driver in 2026.
Q: Will Sydney and Melbourne recover once the RBA cuts rates?
Answer: ANZ expects Sydney and Melbourne to lead the recovery once rate cuts arrive, likely from 2027, as they are most sensitive to the rate cycle. The mid-sized capitals that have run hardest may moderate first as that rotation begins.
